Takeaways from The Predictive Validity Of Test Scores In College Admissions

The data is in (again)

Nobody likes meaningless tests. Entrance exams like the SAT & ACT are valuable when they can inform both test takers and target institutions about the likelihood of success at the next level. So do they? Amy and Mike invited educator David Blobaum to explore the predictive validity of test scores in college admissions.

Listen to the full episode HERE before or after you review the key takeaways, topic breakdowns, and questions answered from this episode.

SOURCE: Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

Key Takeaways

• Recent research shows SAT/ACT scores are 3.9x more predictive of first-year college GPA than high school grades at selective schools

• Many "test-optional" schools still strongly prefer or expect test scores, especially for competitive STEM programs

• AP exam scores are increasingly being used as an alternative metric, raising equity concerns due to limited access

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Topical Breakdown

Predictive Validity of Test Scores

• At Ivy+ schools, SAT/ACT scores alone predict 19.3% of first-year GPA vs. 5% for high school grades

• Adding grades to test scores only increases predictive power from 19.3% to 19.6%

• Test scores also predict graduation rates, future earnings, and prestigious graduate school/career placement

• At UT Austin, score submitters had 0.86 higher first-year GPAs on a 4.0 scale

Test-Optional Policies and Realities

• Many schools remain "test-preferred" despite optional policies (e.g. UIC: 59% overall submitted, 81% for Engineering)

• Selective schools/majors generally value scores more highly

• USC doubled admission chances for score submitters despite claiming "truly optional" policy

• UC system banned from using SAT/ACT but considers AP/IB scores

Trends in Score Consideration

• Growing use of AP scores (e.g. Caltech requiring all taken, Emory weighing more than GPA)

• Raises equity concerns due to limited AP access compared to SAT/ACT

• More schools moving towards "test-preferred" stance for future admissions cycles

• Recent increase in students submitting scores as families recognize the advantage

Next Steps

• Families should carefully research individual school policies beyond surface-level "optional" claims

• Consider taking SAT/ACT even if schools are optional, especially for selective programs

• Be aware of growing importance of AP scores at some institutions

• Stay informed on rapidly evolving testing policies in college admissions

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Q&A

Background and Experience

What advocacy work has David done through the National Test Prep Association?

• Represents NTPA in public (TV, op-eds)

• Educates families about testing and admissions

• Advocates for appropriate use of testing

• Featured in Chicago Tribune and Inside Higher Ed

Predictive Validity of Test Scores

How predictive are SAT/ACT scores compared to high school grades for college success?

• At selective schools, SAT/ACT scores vastly more predictive than grades

• High school grades predict 5% of college GPA

• SAT/ACT scores alone predict 19.3% of college GPA

• Adding grades only increases prediction to 19.6%

What do test scores predict beyond first-year GPA?

• Also predict graduation rates, future earnings

• Predict likelihood of attending prestigious graduate/professional schools

• More predictive than previously thought, even controlling for other factors

Are test scores only valid predictors for selective schools?

• Most useful at selective schools due to grade compression

• Still predictive at less selective schools, but gap narrows

• At UT Austin, score submitters had 0.86 higher first-year GPA

Test-Optional Policies

Why haven't more colleges returned to requiring test scores?

• Allows colleges to artificially lower admit rates

• Gives illusion of selectivity

• Lets colleges admit more athletes/institutional priorities without lowering averages

How "optional" is test-optional at different schools?

• Varies greatly by selectivity of school/program

• More selective = more likely to prefer/require scores

• STEM programs tend to be more test-preferred

Are test-optional schools admitting submitters and non-submitters at the same rates?

• Almost always admit score submitters at higher rates

• E.g. Amherst admits submitters at 2.5x the rate of non-submitters

University of California System

Is the UC system truly test-blind?

• Not truly test-blind, despite claims

• Use AP/IB/A-level scores in admissions

• Need alternative metrics due to grade inflation

What are the issues with using AP scores instead of SAT/ACT?

• Less access to AP courses/exams

• More expensive than SAT/ACT

• Fewer fee waivers available

• Not as standardized across subjects

Future Trends

Are more schools likely to require or prefer test scores in coming years?

• Moving towards test-preferred policies

• Increase in students submitting scores

• More schools encouraging submission of AP scores